## Posts Tagged ‘product improvement’

### HarvardX research: both foundational and immediately applicable

Wednesday, October 23rd, 2013

There is a difference between research and how innovation happens in industry. Research tends to be more foundational and forward-thinking, while innovation in industry is more agile and looks to generate value as soon as possible. Bret Victor, one of my favorite people in interaction design, summarizes it nicely in the diagram below.

Bret Victor’s differences between industry and research innovation

HarvardX is a unique combination of industry and research by the classification above. The team I am part of (HarvardX research) works to generate research and help shape online learning now, as well as contribute to foundational knowledge. Course development teams, who create course content and define course structure, sit on the same floor as us. Course developers work together with the research team looking for ways to improve learning continuously and generalize findings beyond HarvardX to online and residential learning in general. Although the process still needs to be streamlined as we are scaling the effort, we are making progress. One example is the project on using assignment due dates to get a handle on student learning goals and inform course creation.

Here is how it got started.

As we were looking at the structure of past HarvardX courses, we discovered that there was a difference in how graded components were used across courses. Graded components include assignments, problem sets, or exams that contribute to the final grade of the course which determines whether a student gets a certificate of completion. Below is public information on when graded components occurred for 3 HarvardX courses.

The visualization above shows publicly available graded components structure for three completed HarvardX courses: PH207x (Health in Numbers), ER22x (Justice), and CB22x (The Ancient Greek Hero). Hovering the mouse over different elements of the plot reveals detailed information, clicking on course codes removes extra courses from display. For PH207x, each assignment had a due date preceding the release time of the next assignment (except the final exam). For the other two courses, students had the flexibility of completing their graded assignments at any time up until the end of the course.

When the due date passes on a particular graded component, students are no longer able to access and answer it for credit. The “word on the street” among course development teams so far has been that it’s generally desirable to set generous due dates on the graded components as this promotes alternative (formative) modes of learning allowing students not interested in obtaining a grade to access the graded components. Also, this way students who register for a class late have an opportunity to “catch up” by completing all assignments that they “missed”. However, so far it has been unclear what impact such due date structure has on academic achievement (certificate attainment rates) versus other modes of learning (non-certificate track, ie. leisurely browsing).

Indeed, one of the major metrics of online courses is certificate attainment – the proportion of students who register for the course and end up earning a certificate. It turns out that PH207x experienced the attainment rate of over 8.5%, which is the highest among all open HarvardX courses completed to date (average rate of around 4.5%). Does this mean that setting meaningful due dates boosts academic achievement by helping students “stay on track” and not postpone working on the assignments until the work becomes overwhelming? While the hypothesis is plausible, it is too early to draw causal conclusions. It may be that the observation is specific to just public health courses, or PH207x happened to have more committed students to begin with, etc.

While the effect on certificate attainment is certainly important, an equally important question to answer is what impact do due dates have on alternative modes of learning? That’s why we are planning to start an A/B test (randomized controlled experiment) to study the effect of due dates, in close collaboration with course development teams. Sitting on the same floor and being immersed in the same everyday context of HarvardX allows for agile planning, so we are hoping to launch the experiment as early as November 15 or even October 31. The findings of the study have the potential to immediately inform course development for new as well as future iterations of current courses, aiming to improve educational outcomes of learners around the world and on campus.

HarvardX is a great example of a place where research is not only foundational but also immediately applicable. While the combination is certainly stimulating, I wonder to what extent this paradigm translates to other fields, and what benefits and risks it carries. With these questions in mind, I cannot wait to see what results our experimentation will bring and how we can use data to improve online learning.

### Adaptive and social media in MOOCs: the data-driven and the people-driven

Thursday, May 23rd, 2013

In light of my new position as a HarvardX Research Fellow, I have been thinking about the role of data in improving online learning experiences (aka MOOCs) at edX. Can data tell us everything about the ideal learning experience of tomorrow? Can product developers at edX come up with the best version singe-handedly? Or, maybe, the online students could also tell us what is the ideal MOOC?

First, let’s think about what could be the “ideal MOOC”. There is a broad consensus that an ideal online learning experience would yield the best “educational outcomes” for the students. For now, let’s think about the educational outcome as something that’s well-approximated with the amount of learning. Specifically, this means that we want students to extract and internalize as much educational content from the interactive learning experience as possible. Finally, the educational content is information that is relevant to the substance of the class. For example, for a probability course, this would include information on how to use Bayes rule or the change of variables. For a Python programming class this would include information on how to operate Python modules and language syntax. For a class on interactive visualization, this could include (of course!) information on how to use d3js.

This is an important point. Educational content is information relevant to the substance of the class. We want the students to internalize as much of it as possible, make it their knowledge. How can we do that?

Let’s assume that the educational materials (lectures, homework, tests, examples) have already been prepared and we believe that they are good. How do we expose the materials to the students in the best possible way so that students learn the most, stay engaged, and more students complete the class?

Clearly, the setting of a MOOC is different from the setting of a standard classroom. One of the significant differences is the number of students – it’s massive. Depending on the course, the number of enrolled students can exceed 150 thousand – CS50x by David Malan on HarvardX is a great example. Do we want to expose every single student, no matter what country he/she is from, no matter what talents and aspirations he/she has, no matter how many peers he/she will study with, all to the same sequence of the material? Maybe, yes. And maybe, no.

The setting of MOOCs can be a wonderful platform for adaptive media – an algorithmic way of sequentially presenting content and interacting with the user in order to maximize the informational content that the user “internalizes”.

Adaptive media. It’s the characterizing trait of a computer as a medium – the ability to simulate responses, interact, predict, “act like a living being”. We can use it to model, predict, and synthesize the best way to serve content to users, algorithmically.

Can we use adaptive media in MOOCs? The benefits are obvious – with hundreds of thousands of enrollees, it is impossible to adequately staff the course with enough qualified facilitators. Adaptive media could be used together with the teachers’ input and social media such as forums, social grading, and study groups. The purpose, instead of displaying personalized ads, would be to make sure each student learns as much as possible from the interactive learning experience, in his or her unique way. There could also be a multitude of positive extras – reduced dropout rate, higher engagement, higher enrollment for adaptive MOOCs.

Isn’t this interesting?

### Democratization of data science: why this is inefficient

Sunday, November 4th, 2012

The use of data in industry is increasing by the hour, and so does investment in Big Data. Gartner, an information technology research and advisory firm, says the spending on big data will be $28 billion in 2012 alone. This is estimated to trigger a domino effect of$232 billion in spending through the next 5 years.

The business world is evolving rapidly to meet the demands of data-hungry executives. On the data storage front, for example, new technology is quickly developed under the Hadoop umbrella. On the data analysis front, there are startups that tackle and productize related problems such as quid, Healthrageous, Bidgely, and many others. What drives this innovation in analyzing data? What allows so many companies to claim that their products are credible?

Not surprisingly, the demand for analytic talent has been growing, with McKinsey calling Big Data the next frontier of innovation. So, let’s make this clear – businesses need specialists to innovate, to generate ideas and algorithms that would extract value from data.

Who are those specialists, where do they come from? With a shortage of up to 190,000 data specialists projected for 2018, there is a new trend emerging for “the democratization of data science” which means bringing skills to meaningfully analyze data to more people:

The amount of effort being put into broadening the talent pool for data scientists might be the most important change of all in the world of data. In some cases, it’s new education platforms (e.g., Coursera and Udacity) teaching students fundamental skills in everything from basic statistics to natural language processing and machine learning.

Ultimately, all of this could result in a self-feeding cycle where more people start small, eventually work their way up to using and building advanced data-analysis products and techniques, and then equip the next generation of aspiring data scientists with the next generation of data applications.

This quote is optimistic at best. Where is the guarantee that the product developed by a “data scientist” with a couple of classes worth of training is going to work for the entire market? In academic statistics and machine learning programs, students spend several years learning the proper existing methods, how to design new ones, and prove their general validity.

When people without adequate training make analytic products and offer them to many customers, such verification of the product is crucial. Otherwise, the customer may soon discover that the product doesn’t work well enough or not at all, thus bringing down the ROI on the product. The customer will then go back and invest in hiring talent and designing solutions that would actually work for the case of this customer. If all customers have to do this, the whole vehicle with the democratized data science becomes significantly inefficient.

Behind each data analysis decision there must be rigorous scientific justification. For example, consider a very simple Binomial statistical model. We can think about customers visiting a website through a Google ad. Each customer is encoded as 1 if he or she ends up purchasing something on the website, and zero otherwise. The question of interest is, what proportion of customers coming through Google ads ends up buying on the website?

Below is a visualization of the log-likelihood and inverse Fisher information functions. Many inappropriately trained data specialists would not be able to interpret these curves correctly even for the simple model like this. But what about the complex algorithmic solutions they are required to build on a daily basis and roll out on the market?

We can simply take the proportion of customers who bought something, that will be our best guess about the underlying percentage of buying Google ad website visitors. This is not just common sense, the average can be proved to be the best estimator theoretically.

The uncertainty about our estimate can also be quantified by the value of the inverse observed Fisher Information function (picture, left) at the estimated value of p. The three curves correspond to the different numbers of customers who visited our website. The more customers we get, the lower our uncertainty about the proportion of the buying customers is. Try increasing the value of n. You will see that the corresponding curve goes down – our uncertainty about the estimated proportion vanishes.

This is the kind of theory that we need specialists who develop algorithmic products to be equipped with. It requires an investment in their proper education first. If we skip the proper education step, we risk lowering the usefulness and practicality of the products such data scientists design.

### The data science puzzle

Monday, April 11th, 2011

Throughout the past few years, I have heard several times that the demand for quantitatively and data oriented professionals is growing. Clearly, this is good news for statisticians, as statistics is central to the process of extracting a meaningful and actionable signal from data. The terms data science, and data scientist have been accompanying many of the related articles. So, I have decided to do some research and look for evidence of increase in information analysis demand. My goal has been to understand the peculiarities of how our profession is perceived in the community, and attempt to clarify the meaning of the new data science term. (more…)

### Working with Target Teams Inc.

Sunday, June 6th, 2010

Starting in the fall of 2009, I have been fortunate to be engaged in several projects with Target Teams Inc., a company offering psychometric testing services based in Cambridge, MA. The idea is to uncover the personality of, say, a prospective employee via a series of questions and subsequent statistical analysis of the responses. (more…)